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美国大选总结

美国大选沸沸扬扬了两年，我也关注了两年，从最开始一片混沌，到力挺朱利亚尼；从初选的四处烽烟、到希拉里和奥巴马的巅峰对决，从佩林的横空出世、到经济萧条的反思效应。整整两年，房子搬了，电视换了，英语提高了，在昨晚十一时cnn的沃尔夫宣布奥巴马胜选的那一刻，暂时画上了一个休止符，未免有着些许失落。

两年前，也正是在这个时节，美国国会换届选举如火如荼的进行，我也是第一次开始关注这一届的总统大选，也是第一次通过纽约时报的网站知道了奥巴马这个政界的新星，粗略拜读了他的一本自传，描述自己从寻找父亲开始的生命历程。这是一个典型的美国梦的现实版，当时普遍的舆论是，这将是希拉里问鼎白宫之路的一个黑马型的竞争者。没想到，两年后，这匹当年只做了十几个月的参议员，写了两本畅销书的奥巴马，果然是一匹强劲的黑马，够黑，够马。

正所谓“一将功成万骨枯”，在奥巴马的白宫之路上，我们看到了许许多多熟悉的身影，他们步入选战之时，无论从名气、经验、以及政治立场上都远远胜过初出茅庐的奥巴马。在这条荆棘之路上，我们看到了曾经的政坛新星、帅哥爱德华兹，我们更看到了那个曾经不可一世的女人——希拉里克林顿。在和他们的决斗中，奥巴马先是不动声色的排挤掉了一度结盟的小帅哥，后是用着自己雄厚的草根动员力量拖垮了内乱不断的前第一夫人。在这场党内的残酷对决中，年轻的奥巴马积累了足够的经验，为日后和麦凯恩的对决攒足了火药。

毫无疑问，美国正经历着二十世纪中后期以来的最大的一次“文化战争”，左派自由主义者和右派的宗教保守势力的对抗始终是大选的主题之一。历史经验证明，当意识形态的争夺占据上风的时候，共和党人往往能够凝聚各界的保守力量；而当国内经济问题出现危机之时，奉行自由经济的不干预政策的保守力量，往往无法对抗奉行国家宏观调控经济的左派候选人。但也正因为有着这样的制衡，使得美国不至于走向极端。

这次总统大选与其说是美国人投给奥巴马的支持票，不如说是他们投给布什政府的不信任票，也可以说是他们用选票纠正了这个国家的过渡右倾的倾向。但同时他带来的问题是，不仅总统选举，国会的选举这次也是民主党人获得了大胜，获得了在参议院中100个席位里接近60席（目前为止有的席位并没有统计出来）的绝对优势。众议院中这两年已经是民主党的天下了，这次又多了25席。我们还清楚地记得，众议院议长佩罗西两年前信誓旦旦的说要建立良性的两党协商的政治，但两年过去了，当年的承诺打了水漂，美国在疯狂的向左转。今天开始，我们将迎来美国历史上第二次民主党在两院占绝对多数而且控制白宫的时代，还记得上一次是什么时候吗？是卡特——百年来民意最差的总统，卸任时曾创下12%的全国支持率，对比一下，今天布什的17%也不算什么了，况且这还是在民主党统治国会的情况下的数据。

这一次选举，也是连续第三次有越战老兵被提名为总统候选人（前两次是00年的戈尔和04年的克里），也是越战老兵连续第三次在全国大选中败北，难怪昨天msnbc有人不无感伤地说，看来越南真的无法产生总统。麦凯恩曾经、并且永远是美国人的一个传奇，他不仅曾经被俘五年，而且在共和党内也是向来以独行侠而著称。正因为他太过特立独行，才会在2000年的初选时败给了当时作用保守势力吹捧的布什；也正因为他太过特立独行，才会在今年在一次被向左转的美国人民所抛弃。

这一次美国总统大选同时宣布了几个时代的结束。首先是60年代左派运动的结束。希拉里克林顿在党内初选的败北，使人们相信，曾经疯狂追逐红色的那个年代已经离我们远去，那个时代的信仰与理想，那个时代的激情与梦想，已经随着当事人的逐一老去而消失在历史的浪潮中，这也是历史的宿命。那些曾经反战的背影，也已经被深深载入了美国历史变迁的论述中。或者可以说，是克林顿们用自己的青春与热血给了奥巴马们走向白宫的机会，奥巴马们举着前辈的红旗，踩着前辈的肩膀成为了华盛顿的主人。只是他们踩肩膀的力量过大，直接将这些前辈踩进了历史的泥土中。

其次，这次大选宣告了越战时代的结束，很难想象将来还会再有越战老兵出马竞逐总统的宝座。这是一群真正意义上为了祖国不惜付出生命的人，虽然整个战争是非正义的，但是士兵的职责就是执行命令、保卫祖国。他们能够为了这样一个想象中的祖国而付出生命，无论是否成功，本身就是一种英雄的行为。很久以前听过一句名言：一个人要想成为真正的男人，成为英雄，必须要经历三件事：当过兵、离过婚、做过牢。这三点麦凯恩都做到了。他用实际行动证明了自己的英雄气概，也证明了他一生的承诺：为了祖国而战斗。与奥巴马的虚招八脑和中庸之道相比，生来一副婴儿面孔的老麦凯恩无非更具领袖气质和人格魅力。只可惜，在今天的美国，人们已经不需要这样的英雄。其实，那个名言后面还有一句话：一个真正的英雄，必定是失败的英雄，从一个角度说，美国人用选票成全了麦凯恩，成为真正英雄的梦想。

这次大选同时宣告了布什时代的结束。与麦凯恩不同，布什并不具备英雄气质和领袖风范，但与麦凯恩相同，甚至比麦凯恩还要胜过一筹的，是布什的人性。这是一个绝对的好人，一个具有纯粹信仰的人。他的出现，给了深受克林顿时代政府绯闻乌烟瘴气的美国人一股清新的空气。他是一个傻总统，但我们永远不用担心这个傻总统会是华盛顿陷入道德的危机。他带给美国人的是传统宗教价值的回归，他让美国人重新认识了自己，重新认识了自己的美国人的身份。也正是人性化的布什，在坚守信仰的同时尊重并理解女性在堕胎过程中的痛苦抉择。这是一个好儿子、好丈夫、好父亲，也是一个讨人喜爱的人。同样，他的政治上的愚蠢源自这样一种坚定的信仰：要将平等与自由的西方普世思想传遍全球。他失败了，并没有败在对手手下，而是败在了自己的执著中。

这次大选也是一个历史性的胜利，这里诞生了第一个非洲裔美国总统，尽管这个即将就任的总统总是在回避给他打来无数同情票的种族问题。这次大选也是网络时代的胜利，奥巴马利用facebook大规模扫票，成功动员了年轻选民的积极性。这次大选也是金钱的胜利，奥巴马用数亿元的政治筹款横扫全国，令只募集到了8000万的麦凯恩腹背受敌。这次大选更是一个竞选团队的胜利，这是历史上最成功的公关之一，一个竞选团队，在不被看好的情况下，屡次上演奇迹，两年来从没有犯一个重大错误，可为令人叹为观止。

这次大选更是中庸哲学的胜利。许多人将自己期盼改变的理想寄托在了自诩为救世主的奥巴马身上，误以为这是一个能够为了理想而不惜牺牲的人，他们恐怕要失望了，因为历史记录表明，奥巴马是一个中庸主义者、现实主义者或者说是机会主义者。他年轻时候交友不慎，和著名的反美牧师成为了莫逆之交，并由其主持了自己的婚礼。但直到他宣布参加竞选并被人揭发，才不得不宣布与此人的断交。奥巴马在自己参议员生涯的绝大多数投票中都遵循党的政策，并没有显示出超人一筹的判断力。奥巴马同时也是一个圆谎大家，每一次有人反对他的政治表态时候，他都会将责任推给媒体或是助手。当他坚定投下赞成票，赞成全面堕胎（哪怕小孩已经完全成型）的法案后，许多人权组织上门抗议，在再也无法推给媒体或是助手的此时，奥巴马一连无辜地说，他按投票器按错了。有人给他统计过，这个当了不到14个月的参议员，一共投票器按错了不下5次。好一个创造历史的总统，好一个有判断力的总统啊！我想孔子的孙子子思应该在九泉下也能瞑目了，自己所倡导的中庸哲学，被这样一个带着理想主义帽子的人玩弄得无以复加。但我不认为这次大选是奥巴马撒谎的产物，因为身为政客，撒谎是必然的基本素养。只不过，政客与政治家的区别在于，政治家靠撒谎来实现自己的政治理想，哪怕牺牲自己；而政客则是靠撒谎来圆融自己和别人，他们没有坚定的政治抱负，他们所有的，只是一张亮丽的表皮。  

“从来就没有救世主，也不靠神仙皇帝”，当一个人想成为所有人的救世主的时候，也是他自己需要被拯救的时候。当一个自诩为救世主的人开始“救世”的时候，也是人们即将戳穿他虚伪表皮的时候。在奥巴马的政治哲学中，没有信仰，没有坚持，没有执著。有的只是投机与取巧。当他和麦凯恩立下君子协议，要动用公共基金但是承诺竞选基金上限的时候，就已经暗地里操作撕毁协议了；当他靠着批判希拉里的中间政策而吸引大量左翼选票从而赢得党内初选的时候，就已经盘算着“借用”希拉里带来的现成政策而走向中间竞逐总统了；这都是一个成熟政客的行为，我们无可厚非。但是，今天的美国需要的不是政客，而是成熟的政治家，一个能让人看到自己的坚持与信念的领袖，而不是一个八面玲珑却摇摆不定的老好人。

奥巴马在胜选感言中，宣布“美国从今晚开始改变”。我要说的是，奥巴马，你错了，并不是你的胜选将带给美国改变，而是美国的改变促成了你的胜选。正如托克维尔在《旧制度与法国大革命》中的精辟总结一样，“法国大革命并不是一个开端，而是一个长期积累的总结”。奥巴马的胜利并不是改变的开始，而是改变的结束。奥巴马，要成为罗伯斯比尔还是拿破仑，历史的天平掌握在你的手中。我宁愿相信，在昨晚的那一刻，创造历史的并不是奥巴马，而是六十年代红色嬉皮士的一代、越战老兵的一代、以及坚守传统价值的一代。正如麦凯恩在败选感言中最后所说的：“我们不会藏在历史的背后，我们创造历史”。

向麦凯恩——一个真正的孤胆英雄，致敬！向所有创造了历史的美国人，致敬。  

（附上麦凯恩的败选感言）

Thank you. Thank you, my friends. Thank you for coming here on this beautiful Arizona evening.

My friends, we have — we have come to the end of a long journey. The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly.

A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Senator Barack Obama to congratulate him.

To congratulate him on being elected the next president of the country that we both love.

In a contest as long and difficult as this campaign has been, his success alone commands my respect for his ability and perseverance. But that he managed to do so by inspiring the hopes of so many millions of Americans who had once wrongly believed that they had little at stake or little influence in the election of an American president is something I deeply admire and commend him for achieving.

This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight.

I've always believed that America offers opportunities to all who have the industry and will to seize it. Senator Obama believes that, too.

But we both recognize that, though we have come a long way from the old injustices that once stained our nation's reputation and denied some Americans the full blessings of American citizenship, the memory of them still had the power to wound.

A century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt's invitation of Booker T. Washington to dine at the White House was taken as an outrage in many quarters.

America today is a world away from the cruel and frightful bigotry of that time. There is no better evidence of this than the election of an African-American to the presidency of the United States.

Let there be no reason now ... Let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth.

Senator Obama has achieved a great thing for himself and for his country. I applaud him for it, and offer him my sincere sympathy that his beloved grandmother did not live to see this day. Though our faith assures us she is at rest in the presence of her creator and so very proud of the good man she helped raise.

Senator Obama and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed. No doubt many of those differences remain.

These are difficult times for our country. And I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face.

I urge all Americans ... I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together to find the necessary compromises to bridge our differences and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited.

Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that.

It is natural. It's natural, tonight, to feel some disappointment. But tomorrow, we must move beyond it and work together to get our country moving again.

We fought — we fought as hard as we could. And though we feel short, the failure is mine, not yours.

I am so deeply grateful to all of you for the great honor of your support and for all you have done for me. I wish the outcome had been different, my friends.

The road was a difficult one from the outset, but your support and friendship never wavered. I cannot adequately express how deeply indebted I am to you.

I'm especially grateful to my wife, Cindy, my children, my dear mother ... my dear mother and all my family, and to the many old and dear friends who have stood by my side through the many ups and downs of this long campaign.

I have always been a fortunate man, and never more so for the love and encouragement you have given me.

You know, campaigns are often harder on a candidate's family than on the candidate, and that's been true in this campaign.

All I can offer in compensation is my love and gratitude and the promise of more peaceful years ahead.

I am also — I am also, of course, very thankful to Governor Sarah Palin, one of the best campaigners I've ever seen ... one of the best campaigners I have ever seen, and an impressive new voice in our party for reform and the principles that have always been our greatest strength ... her husband Todd and their five beautiful children ... for their tireless dedication to our cause, and the courage and grace they showed in the rough and tumble of a presidential campaign.

We can all look forward with great interest to her future service to Alaska, the Republican Party and our country.

To all my campaign comrades, from Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt and Mark Salter, to every last volunteer who fought so hard and valiantly, month after month, in what at times seemed to be the most challenged campaign in modern times, thank you so much. A lost election will never mean more to me than the privilege of your faith and friendship.

I don't know — I don't know what more we could have done to try to win this election. I'll leave that to others to determine. Every candidate makes mistakes, and I'm sure I made my share of them. But I won't spend a moment of the future regretting what might have been.

This campaign was and will remain the great honor of my life, and my heart is filled with nothing but gratitude for the experience and to the American people for giving me a fair hearing before deciding that Senator Obama and my old friend Senator Joe Biden should have the honor of leading us for the next four years.

I would not — I would not be an American worthy of the name should I regret a fate that has allowed me the extraordinary privilege of serving this country for a half a century.

Today, I was a candidate for the highest office in the country I love so much. And tonight, I remain her servant. That is blessing enough for anyone, and I thank the people of Arizona for it.

Tonight — tonight, more than any night, I hold in my heart nothing but love for this country and for all its citizens, whether they supported me or Senator Obama — whether they supported me or Senator Obama.

I wish Godspeed to the man who was my former opponent and will be my president. And I call on all Americans, as I have often in this campaign, to not despair of our present difficulties, but to believe, always, in the promise and greatness of America, because nothing is inevitable here.

Americans never quit. We never surrender.

We never hide from history. We make history.

Thank you, and God bless you, and God bless America. Thank you all very much.